The oilseed markets fluctuated noticeably last week. The soy complex initially showed slight upward trends, but came under increasing pressure. This was due to a combination of weak US export figures, speculative selling and political uncertainties.
Prices were initially supported by hopes of more stable export demand and a temporary suspension of punitive tariffs. However, these hopes were quickly dampened: the US government appealed against the court ruling, which unsettled the markets once again. This was compounded by disappointing export figures from the US Department of Agriculture and a verbal escalation in the trade conflict between the US and China, triggered by Trump's harsh rhetoric.
Weather conditions also played a role: growing conditions in the US are currently very favorable, which improves the prospects of a large soybean harvest - a factor that tends to weigh on prices. Nevertheless, planting has so far fallen slightly short of expectations.
The ups and downs continued on the rapeseed and canola market. Here, dry weather conditions and low stocks initially had a supportive effect. At the same time, however, weakening demand, particularly in exports, had a negative impact. Towards the end of the week, weak indications from other vegetable oil markets - such as Malaysia and China - put additional pressure on sales. The European rapeseed market only partially followed this trend and was somewhat more stable towards the end of the week.
Overall, the week reflected a high level of nervousness - due to both fundamental data and geopolitical tensions. Accordingly, the markets remain susceptible to news impulses.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed markets were much more nervous in week 22, with increasing volatility. The soybean market is under bearish pressure due to favorable weather conditions, disappointing export figures and political uncertainties. Despite individual bullish impulses - such as speculative overexpansion or weather-related risks in Canada - the fundamental picture remains weak. The rapeseed market is somewhat more stable, but is primarily benefiting from regional bottlenecks and a lower dependence on exports.
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