Political tensions and weak export figures dominated events on the oilseed markets last week. The soybean market in particular came under heavy pressure due to a renewed flare-up in the trade conflict between the US and China. A Truth Social post by President Donald Trump from the previous week, in which he sharply criticized China, caused considerable uncertainty on the stock markets and initially pushed soybean prices to a multi-week low. Beijing countered with similar accusations, but the surprise came towards the end of the week: Trump and China's President Xi spoke on the phone earlier than expected - a signal of détente that boosted the market.
Despite this diplomatic glimmer of hope, the fundamental picture remains tense. Export demand for US soybeans is conspicuously weak. Although recent exports were slightly higher than the previous week, they were well below the previous year's level. Sales of soybean meal and oil also remained in line with expectations, but at the lower end.
While political uncertainties dominated, climatic and currency factors also increasingly came into focus with regard to canola. In Canada's western prairie states, rainfall in the previous week provided some relief, but was not enough to compensate for the deficit in many places. At the same time, a strong Canadian dollar weighed on canola prices in Winnipeg. Uncertainty surrounding the new harvest remains high - not only in North America, but also in Australia, where the harvest forecast was lowered due to persistent drought.
The rapeseed market in Europe was comparatively unaffected by this turbulence. Prices on Euronext in Paris moved within a narrow corridor and remained stable. The relative scarcity of the old harvest and the international environment for vegetable oils had a particularly supportive effect.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed markets remain in a fragile equilibrium. Political developments - particularly between the USA and China - could lead to sharp price movements in the short term. Demand, especially from China, remains the key uncertainty factor. As long as there is no clear trend reversal in exports, the market is likely to remain nervous. At the same time, much depends on the weather conditions in the coming weeks: If the drought in North America and Australia worsens, this will quickly have an impact on the price.
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