Ölsaaten News, 07/07/2023

Rapeseed trading on Euronext/Matif was volatile this week. However, contract prices have softened so far this week. The harvest, which is about to start, is causing something like harvest pressure on the cash markets. Contracts ex-harvest are currently valued at around 400 euros/t on average across Germany, according to market participants. Most recently, however, the forecasts for the European harvest have been largely stable. Last week, the EU Commission predicted a harvest of 19.9 million tons, around 100,000 tons less than previously. The umbrella organization of European agricultural trade expects 19.8 million tons. Overall, however, it is becoming apparent that the EU will continue to have to import large quantities of rapeseed. A total of 7.34 million tons of rapeseed were imported in the past marketing year. The main supplier was Australia, followed by Ukraine. For both, however, the future ability to deliver is in the stars. According to the current status, the grain agreement for Ukraine will expire on July 18th. out of. The extension is unlikely. In Australia, the record harvest in 2022/23 is likely to be followed by a rather average harvest in 2023/24. Only in Canada are the harvest forecasts rated higher.As it is said, the stocks have developed very well here, even if dry phases in the Canadian prairies are an issue again and again. Warm and dry weather has also been reported for the coming days. The soybean market on the CBoT was also very volatile this week. Despite yesterday's profit taking, soybeans were up for the week. Soybean meal was also able to strengthen and soybean oil in particular was characterized by a real rally with the exception of yesterday's trading day. Condition ratings in US acreage were downgraded by the USDA earlier in the week despite recent rainfall. The majority of market participants had expected an improvement in the condition assessments. The significantly smaller US acreage forecast last Friday also had an impact this week. However, weak export figures in the USA and very good export volumes in Brazil continued to create headwinds. In June, Brazil was able to ship 13.8 million tons of soybeans, which is 40 percent more than in June 2022 and thus clearly surpasses the previous June record of 12.7 million tons. In Argentina, on the other hand, the harvest was disappointing. The grain exchange in Buenos Aires has a quantity of 21 million in its soy balance.tons reported. This means that less than half of that was taken from the fields than was the case last year. In the coming days, warm and dry temperatures are again forecast for many US growing regions, with the exception of the southern Corn Belt.