Ölsaaten News, 07/14/2023

The oilseed markets were friendly in the week that is now ending. Rapeseed increased significantly. While the most traded November date on the Paris stock exchange last Friday still showed a closing price of 448.25 euros/t, it was 481.25 euros/t yesterday at the closing bell. The rapeseed market is supported from several sides. Soybean and soybean meal prices also rose noticeably this week, and in the WASDE report, the USDA slightly lowered its global harvest forecast. The Ministry also expects a little less rapeseed in Europe, but at 20.2 million tons it is still above the 19.9 million tons that the EU Commission is forecasting for the coming harvest. However, there are increased forecasts for Ukraine. Here, the USDA expects a harvest of 4 million tons. The European forecasting service MARS had also predicted a good Ukrainian rapeseed harvest in a special report, but traders here in Germany are also wondering whether there is sufficient capacity to deliver the quantities overland. The current export agreement for Ukraine expires next week.The signals that were recently sent from Russia still did not indicate that the agreement would be extended. In Canada, the prairie states continue to be characterized by dry and warm weather. Concerns about the development of the stock and the quality of the stock are growing accordingly. For Canada, the USDA expects a harvest of 20.3 million tons in the July WASDE. For Australia, the most important supplier in the last financial year, the analysts of the US Department of Agriculture assume a harvest volume of 4.9 million tons, in the previous year the harvest was still a record-breaking 8.3 million tons. For soybeans, the week remains volatile. On Wednesday, after the publication of the WASDE report, things went south, but yesterday soya was able to recoup the losses. Although the production figures for the USA were reduced in the WASDE report, they were not as significant as the market had previously expected. Global production, which was estimated at 410.70 million tons in June, is now at 405.31 million tons. In the USA in particular, significant adjustments were made due to the smaller acreage and the weather conditions to date.No other adjustments to production were made in the important producing countries, but at the same time lower consumption is expected and the export potential of the USA is estimated to be lower. The fact that soybeans were able to increase again on Thursday was mainly due to the weather forecast and doubts as to whether soybean production in the USA was realistically estimated. There was also support on the export front. While the weekly export sales were in line with expectations, they were solid and at the same time the USDA was able to announce a flash sale of 315,000 tons of beans to Mexico. Tailwinds also came from the crude oil markets. In pre-market trading, the soybean complex was initially in the red, but has returned to the black during the course of today's Friday.