Ölsaaten News, 07/21/2023

In the course of this trading week, rapeseed recaptured the psychologically important mark of 500 euros/t on the Euronext/Matif. The most traded November date closed last Friday at 471.25 euros/t, yesterday evening 504.75 euros/t were on the exchange's display board. The rapeseed trade remains volatile, because the mark has already been lost again since the start of today's trading day and shows significant losses of up to 2.22% by midday. The first harvest reports from Germany show a heterogeneous picture, depending on the weather development and soil quality at the respective location. Overall, market experts are optimistic, but very average returns can be expected. Ex-harvest prices of around 500 euros/t were quoted yesterday, and a few weeks ago harvest prices of 400 euros/t were still being speculated. It is currently dry in Canada and farmers are concerned about the development of their stocks. Farmers there usually start harvesting from the beginning/mid-August. In its most recent WASDE, the USDA expected canola production to be 87.42 million tons.In Canada, Europe and Ukraine in particular, more rapeseed is expected than in the previous year, while Australian production is likely to decline significantly, which is why global production is also expected to be lower than in the previous year. According to estimates by the USDA, EU imports are likely to fall from over 7 million tons in the last marketing year to 5.1 million tons this marketing year. The end of the export corridor initially did not affect the rapeseed market. However, the Russian attacks on Odessa, in which important port infrastructure was destroyed. In the soybean market, weather concerns in the US cultivation areas were the main drivers of market development this week. Overall, however, there has recently been significant relief, as of 18.07. 50 percent of US soybean acreage is classified as affected by drought. Condition ratings were upgraded earlier in the week. The week before, 57 percent of the soy stocks were still affected by the drought. Nevertheless, the prospects for the last few days of July are dry and warm again in the key areas. The weather development in July will be decisive for many plants. US export sales this week were at 890.000 tons at the high end of analyst estimates and provided fundamental support. Mexico is the main customer for US exporters. Harvesting is continuing in Brazil, more and more analyst firms and associations have recently adjusted their forecasts for the harvest upwards, but the optimistic shipment volumes from the beginning of the month will probably not be reached. In a special report, the USDA cut the harvest for Argentina again and now expects a quantity of 21.3 million tons (-3.6 million tons compared to the July WASDE).