04.
08.23
US soy exports support gains

Ölsaaten News, 08/04/2023

Bullish
  • Uncertain export deals Ukraine
  • EU corrects harvest forecast for rapeseed
Bearish
  • EU exports down
  • Improved weather forecast in the USA
  • Record harvest in Brazil
Cash markets in view euros/ton
bread wheat Jun 29 Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 Aug 3 +/-
Hamburg 246.00 nn 250.00 266.00 249.00 -17.00
Lower Rhine 248.00 248.00 259.00 248.00 248.00 0.00
Upper Rhine 247.00 246.00 256.00 246.00 245.00 -1.00
East Germany 230.00 229.00 234.00 229.00 233.00 4.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 244.00 243.00 248.00 243.00 247.00 4.00
Oldenburg 241.00 240.00 254.00 240.00 243.00 3.00
feed barley
Hamburg 208.00 211.00 220.00 211.00 204.00 -7.00
East Germany 198.00 201.00 210.00 201.00 180.00 -21.00
grain corn
South Oldenburg 244.00 243.00 243.00 243.00 245.00 2.00
Cash markets in view euros/ton
canola 29June Jul 13 Jul 20 Jul 27 Aug 3 +/-
Hamburg 431.00 462.00 497.00 462.00 429.00 -33.00
Straubingen 426.00 448.00 492.00 454.00 438.00 -16.00
soybean meal
Hamburg 449.00 452.00 481.00 499.00 482.00 -17.00
Magdeburg 459.00 462.00 491.00 509.00 492.00 -17.00
Mainz 461.00 467.00 511.00 511.00 503.00 -8.00
rapeseed meal
Hamburg n.n. 304.00 316.00 302.00 302.00 0.00
Hamm 327.00 330.00 317.00 310.00 299.00 -11.00
Lower Rhine 323.00 340.00 320.00 229.00 289.00 60.00

The Euronext Raps ended another day of gains yesterday. For the front month of November, it went from EUR 15.25 per ton to EUR 459.75 per ton. The Union for Promotion has published new figures on German rapeseed meal exports. According to the analysts, these amount to around 1.5 million tons for FY 22/23. The result is thus below the previous year's level (-4%) and marks the lowest value for more than four years. The target countries of the export business were mainly within the EU and accounted for 13 million tons. The Netherlands, in particular, imported oilseed from Germany, followed by Denmark. The French and Spaniards booked significantly fewer, which was mainly due to the greater self-sufficiency of the countries. In Winnipeg, canola contracts continued to fall this trading week. Shortly before the weekend, however, they were able to turn the tide and took small profits yesterday. Above all, investors used the price correction of the last few days to position themselves on the market again. The soybean complex got back on track after the brief setback yesterday and gained modestly over the trading session.The September date gained $5.50 US cents/bushel and thus costs the equivalent of 463.57 euros per ton. The development is supported in particular by the solid export business. According to the USDA, these totaled 2.7 million tons in the week ended July 27, in line with market participants' estimates. The USDA also confirmed a new deal for 132,000 tons. The gains were slowed down by the further easing of the weather situation. For the coming days, the meteorologists expect less heat and precipitation. This increases the hope that plants will develop well during this important growing season.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The past trading week was volatile. Above all, the weather is currently determining the market for soybeans and even if the prospects are currently better again and the prices are therefore also under pressure, this can change again within a few days.

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13.
02.26
17:25

Rapeseed / canola - stabilization despite global abundance of oilseeds The oilseed complex is characterized globally by high production volumes and rising ending stocks, particularly for soybeans in South America. At the same time, the IGC analysis signals rising oilseed production and higher global stocks overall, which structurally limits the…

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23.
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12:53

Rapeseed Weekly market development Global: USDA and other forecasts show rising global rapeseed production (including Australia, Canada, Russia) and higher ending stocks. EU context: Sufficient oilseed supply overall; no bottleneck signals. Trend: EU & global: stable to slightly bearish 2-4 week outlook: Sideways, with slight downside risk as…

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10.
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18:53

Rapeseed /Canola & Oilseeds The WASDE report raises rapeseed production globally, including in the EU and Ukraine. However, market reports recently show a decline in oilseed futures partly due to oversupply (e.g. good canola harvests in Australia). Ukrainian export quotations for rapeseed are under pressure, influenced by weak demand and…

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