12.
09.23
Rapeseed weaker - soy friendly

Ölsaaten News, 09/12/2023

Bullish
  • Harvest Argentina
  • August heat USA
  • Heat damage feared in Canada
  • geopolitical tensions
Bearish
  • Record harvest Brazil
  • high harvest expectations Black Sea
  • declining demand for rapeseed oil
  • Reluctance to buy mills

Rapeseed starts the new week weaker. Yesterday, Monday, the price for the month went south by 4.50 euros/t and today rapeseed is showing red signs again. At 2 p.m. the rate is 440.50 euros per day. The completed harvest in Europe is currently being stored or processed directly by the mills. Overall, however, cash market sales are also at a low level. Demand from oil mills is low and producers are not particularly willing to sell. Rapeseed oil prices in particular have also fallen recently. As reported, the federal average rapeseed oil prices fell by around 25 euros per ton on a weekly basis. Quotations have also recently fallen in the port of Rotterdam. Impetus for rapeseed could come from today's WASDE report. Many market participants in this country are expecting that the USDA will revise the global rapeseed forecast downwards. Most recently, the EU Commission adjusted the European rapeseed harvest downwards again at the end of August. The rapid harvest in Canada also puts additional pressure on rapeseed. The machines are currently running at full speed here and so Canola also gave way at the start of the week. Europe's rapeseed imports are currently below last year's levels. Until the 3rdIn September, 519,789 tonnes of rapeseed were imported into the European Union in the current marketing year. At this point in the previous year it was already 1.03 million tonnes. On the other hand, a little more rapeseed meal was imported again. The soy market continued its upward trend at the start of the week. The condition assessments of the plants have deteriorated again by one percentage point and for today's WASDE the analysts expect that the USDA will adjust the forecast for US production downwards. The market is also supported by new export reports. Yesterday the USDA reported a sale of 180,000 tons of beans to a buyer from the Philippines. The grain exchange in Buenos Aires expects a harvest of 50 million tons of soy for the coming season. Due to the drought, the last harvest was only 21 million tonnes. Fundamental support for the markets also came from the crude oil market. WTI and Brent recently closed higher, although there was a slight correction at the beginning of the week.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The signs in the soy market are positive. The heat in August and the current good demand supported the price development. WASDE could provide impetus for rapeseed this Tuesday, as the EU Commission and private analysis houses have already revised the European harvest downwards.

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