Ölsaaten News, 09/15/2023

Rapeseed showed its volatile sides in the week that is now coming to an end and fell slightly on a weekly basis, even though there was a real fireworks display yesterday. At the closing bell yesterday, the price on the Paris stock exchange's display board was 446.25 euros/t. Canola on the ICE also rose slightly yesterday. Last Friday there were still 449 euros for the November date. The USDA estimated lower global canola production in its September WASDE. Production forecasts were cut, particularly in Canada and the European Union. Globally, this season's harvest is expected to be 85.18 million tonnes, 900,000 tonnes less than before. For Europe, the harvest was reduced by 500,000 tonnes to 19.7 million and in Canada the USDA now expects 18.2 instead of 19 million tonnes. Ukraine, on the other hand, is likely to harvest more than previously expected. Harvest quantities were also increased for Australia and Pakistan. Statistics Canada cut its own forecast yesterday by 200,000 tonnes from the August estimate and expects production to reach 17.4 million tonnes, making it more pessimistic than the USDA. At the same time, the current harvest, which is progressing quickly, is limiting price gains on the ICE.There is still little rapeseed traded on the local cash markets. Demand for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has also fallen recently and tends to put prices under pressure. There are reports of a more than sufficient supply of products, particularly when it comes to rapeseed meal. Soya, on the other hand, rose this week. Recently, there has been speculation about major damage to stocks in the important US growing regions. It is currently hot and dry in the Corn Belt and the Midwest, and at the same time soybean stocks here are in the critical phase of their development. The USDA had already reduced condition assessments earlier this week. The figures from the WASDE report on Tuesday, however, caused a significant short-term setback for beans. Although the USDA cut the US production forecast, the correction was significantly smaller than analysts and traders had previously expected. This was also justified by higher cultivated areas than previously assumed. As the week progressed, traders increasingly doubted the USDA forecast regarding harvest volume. The USDA did not yet see any need for correction for other important production countries such as Argentina and Brazil.The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentine production of 50 million tons for the coming harvest. Due to the drought, the last harvest only produced 21 million tons. However, at midday today, soybean meal and soybeans are trending red again.