Prices in the soy complex were volatile in the past week. The market started with slight losses for soybeans and soybean meal, with disappointing export figures compared to the previous year and China's continued reluctance to buy as a result of the trade dispute having a negative impact. Although Mexico, Egypt and Pakistan were larger buyers, they were unable to compensate for the structural weakness caused by the lack of Chinese purchases. In the middle of the week, analysts' estimates provided some stabilization after market participants had assumed that harvest expectations in the USA would fall slightly. These estimates took on particular significance as the monthly Wasde report was postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown. However, political tensions between China and the US raised new doubts about an imminent easing of tensions at the end of the week, which led to renewed losses in soybeans and soybean meal. The massive escalation in China's tone regarding trade in rare earths is creating more pressure, as the soy complex could possibly be given a lower priority in the negotiations. Brazil attracted international attention with news of a sharp rise in exports, which are heading for a record high.
The picture on the rapeseed market was mixed. In Canada, canola prices came under pressure at times, boosted by favorable harvest weather and reports of above-average yields, while at the same time logistical bottlenecks were reported at processing plants. New sales prospects, such as a bilateral agreement between the Canadian province of Saskatchewan and Indonesia, could provide relief in the medium term. On Euronext, rapeseed prices fluctuated sharply in some cases, but rose towards the end of the week.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The current situation on the oilseed market remains tense. While analysts are compensating for the lack of official USDA data with their own estimates, the market still lacks a central point of orientation. The trade dispute between China and the US continues to be a considerable burden on price trends, particularly for soybeans. Rising Brazilian exports show where demand is currently shifting to. In the short term, political impetus from the planned summit at the end of October could provide new momentum. Until then, the picture is likely to be characterized by volatile prices. In the case of rapeseed, the expectation of above-average yields in Canada could have a dampening effect on prices in the short term, even if individual logistical bottlenecks in processing counteract this. However, Europe is currently benefiting from a weaker euro.
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