Last week, the oilseed markets were caught between weather developments, export figures and trade policy uncertainties. Soybean prices initially continued their downward trend, but showed a slight recovery towards the end of the week. The good condition assessments of US stocks had a particularly negative impact. On the other hand, robust export demand was supportive: with sales of over 500,000 tons, the USA recorded its highest weekly volume since March. Egypt, Indonesia and Mexico were among the main buyers, and business with new crops was also surprisingly strong. Large quantities of soybean meal were also sold, while the bean oil business remained weak, presumably as a result of ongoing international trade conflicts.
On the rapeseed market, weather conditions in Canada were the main factor. The prairies are still suffering from drought, even though rain has been reported regionally. Canola prices on the ICE in Winnipeg fell significantly over the course of the week, but stabilized slightly towards the end. Rapeseed prices on Euronext also followed this movement, stabilizing again on Friday after losses in the middle of the week. Analysts are expecting yield losses as the drought in Canada continues, which could support the market in the short term.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed markets have recently been caught between weather-related risks, solid export demand and political uncertainties. Soya benefited from surprisingly strong sales, while the meal business also provided support. In rapeseed, the drought in Canada is providing upside potential - provided the rainfall remains locally limited. The markets remain nervous ahead of the USDA-WASDE report. Weather developments, export trends and political signals will be decisive.
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