02.
12.22
Sharp price correction for soybean oil causes turbulence

Ölsaaten News, 12/02/2022

Bullish
  • drought in Argentina
  • Import requirement oilseeds EU
  • Oilseed production in Ukraine below average
Bearish
  • Uncertainty about inflation and the economy
  • Change in law in the USA on biofuel blending
  • Prospects in Brazil mediocre
Cash markets in view euros/ton
bread wheat Nov 3 Nov 10 Nov 17 Nov 24 1 Dec +/-
Hamburg 364.00 355.00 338.00 343.00 340.00 -3.00
Lower Rhine 362.00 353.00 336.00 343.00 340.00 -3.00
Upper Rhine 361.00 352.00 335.00 342.00 339.00 -3.00
East Germany 348.00 339.00 322.00 327.00 324.00 -3.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 362.00 353.00 336.00 341.00 338.00 -3.00
Oldenburg 356.00 347.00 330.00 337.00 334.00 -3.00
feed barley
Hamburg 302.00 304.00 290.00 292.00 292.00 0.00
East Germany 284.00 286.00 272.00 274.00 274.00 0.00
grain corn
South Oldenburg 334.00 328.00 311.00 325.00 321.00 -4.00
canola 3.Nov Nov 10 Nov 17 Nov 24 1 Dec +/-
Hamburg 652.00 637.00 603.00 576.00 584.00 8.00
Straubingen 647.00 632.00 598.00 571.00 579.00 8.00
soybean meal
Hamburg 562.00 538.00 503.00 503.00 500.00 -3.00
Magdeburg 572.00 515.00 513.00 513.00 510.00 -3.00
Mainz 580.00 559.00 529.00 529.00 521.00 -8.00
rapeseed meal
Hamburg 343.00 338.00 338.00 338.00 338.00 0.00
Hamm 345.00 340.00 343.00 366.00 359.00 -7.00
Lower Rhine 340.00 340.00 340.00 357.00 353.00 -4.00

With the weak indications from the soybean market and the deep red figures on the Winnipeg stock exchange, rapeseed prices went into the red yesterday. The front month led with a loss of EUR 14.25/ton. The February date was closed at 585.50 euros/ton. Canola contracts also went significantly south. The price correction on the soybean market dragged the oilseed down with it, and the renewed strength of the Canadian currency made for an unfavorable exchange rate. Soybeans went down yesterday, posting double-digit losses. The front month posted a loss of $3975 US cents/bushel to end the day at $1429.75 US cents/bushel. Above all, a sharp correction in soybean oil caused the sell-off on the stock exchange. Market observers justified the correction by the US government's plan to change and reduce the blends of biofuels over the next three years. Biofuel is obtained from soybean oil, among other things, so the new law could have a significant impact on the processing of soybean oil. Around 20.82 billiongallons of biofuel will be blended, well below market participants' expectations and only an increase of 190 million gallons from last year. That in turn means that only 5.2 billion gallons of advanced biofuels are blended in.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Oilseeds have come under significant pressure. This week, too, the downward trend prevailed and yesterday's price correction in particular caused severe losses. The market remains tight. Despite uncertain harvest prospects in South America, bearish momentum remains strong and could continue to provide pressure in the coming week.

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13.
02.26
17:25

Rapeseed / canola - stabilization despite global abundance of oilseeds The oilseed complex is characterized globally by high production volumes and rising ending stocks, particularly for soybeans in South America. At the same time, the IGC analysis signals rising oilseed production and higher global stocks overall, which structurally limits the…

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23.
12.25
12:53

Rapeseed Weekly market development Global: USDA and other forecasts show rising global rapeseed production (including Australia, Canada, Russia) and higher ending stocks. EU context: Sufficient oilseed supply overall; no bottleneck signals. Trend: EU & global: stable to slightly bearish 2-4 week outlook: Sideways, with slight downside risk as…

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10.
12.25
18:53

Rapeseed /Canola & Oilseeds The WASDE report raises rapeseed production globally, including in the EU and Ukraine. However, market reports recently show a decline in oilseed futures partly due to oversupply (e.g. good canola harvests in Australia). Ukrainian export quotations for rapeseed are under pressure, influenced by weak demand and…

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