The week on the oilseed market was characterized by weak data and slightly disappointing export figures, which were recently followed by isolated bullish impulses. Soybean prices continued to fall at the start of the week. Disappointing export estimates and the USDA's caution in the Wasde report weighed on sentiment. The expected increase in US ending stocks materialized, while the export forecast remained unchanged. Internationally, only the increase in the global production estimate attracted limited attention, as it was mainly attributable to Russia and India. News of new export sales totalling over 600,000 tons of soybeans and soybean meal, including orders from China, Poland and unknown destinations, provided slight support in the middle of the week. Nevertheless, price pressure remained high, not least due to the still above-average yield prospects in South America. In Argentina, the new government lowered export taxes on soybeans and soy products, which could indicate an upturn in export momentum.
The downward trend in soybean meal continued before a slight technical recovery occurred towards the end of the week. Soybean oil remained in the shadow of the overall complex and barely reacted to the news.
Canola was extremely volatile in Winnipeg. Reports of full capacity utilization at processors had a supportive effect, but a lack of exports to China dampened the medium-term outlook. Rapeseed in Europe benefited from a German legislative proposal to ensure the use of rapeseed oil as a bio-component. This led to a small rally that continued towards the end of the week.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite isolated glimmers of hope, the soybean market remains under pressure. Although export momentum has recently improved slightly, the increase in US ending stocks and stable production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina are clouding the outlook. The relief for Argentinian exporters could increase global supply and put pressure on prices. Political developments in Germany could have a supportive effect on rapeseed in the medium term, particularly with regard to demand for biofuels. Canola remains a plaything of volatility for the time being. Without new Chinese demand, the upside potential remains limited.
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