Prices in the soy complex were mixed in the reporting week, but the overall mood remained rather subdued. Soybeans started the week with losses, mainly due to disappointing US sales figures. China continued to hold back on purchases, which increasingly worried market participants. Reports of a slight increase in imports from the People's Republic provided a brief respite, but with the upcoming WASDE report in mind, the focus shifted back to export-related risks. The expectation that the USDA could lower its export forecast due to weak Chinese demand weighed on the market, as did the solid yields per hectare and the only slight decline in the valuation level of US stocks. It was not until the end of the week that speculative buying turned green again. Meanwhile, new record figures from Brazil, where Conab raised its harvest estimate to 171.5 million tons and held out the prospect of a further increase for the coming season, had a negative impact. Ending stocks were also set significantly higher.
The trend in soybean meal was more positive, supported by rising futures at the weekend and a slight upturn in demand. The rapeseed and canola markets were dominated by regional impulses. While canola in Canada fell to a five-month low in the meantime, friendly signals from overseas supported prices at the end of the week. Stockpiles in Canada recently fell significantly. In Europe, rapeseed prices moved sideways in a narrow range with a slight downward correction on Friday.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Persistently weak export demand, particularly from China, is weighing on sentiment in the soybean market. Even if the WASDE report brings slight reductions in yields per hectare, the solid production prospects in the USA and South America should keep supply high. The record reports from Brazil set a clearly bearish tone. In the short term, technical impulses could lead to further upward corrections, but structurally the oversupply remains a depressing factor. In the rapeseed and canola market, the focus remains on Canada. Although the sharp drop in inventories is providing support, a sustained price increase is not expected for the time being. Overall, geopolitical developments, weather risks and export dynamics mean that the oilseed market remains highly directional.
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