The soybean market was increasingly bullish last week. Signals from China already had a supportive effect at the start of the week: Beijing approved the delivery of soybeans to three US traders, a step towards easing the long-simmering tariff dispute. As a result, prices for beans and meal initially rose moderately. The prospect of lower acreage yields in the USA, which analysts are expecting in the run-up to the upcoming Wasde report, also had a supportive effect. At the same time, concerns about a possible overfulfillment of Chinese import commitments to Brazil caused uncertainty among US traders. China's agreement with COFCO to purchase 20 million tons of agricultural goods, including soybeans, fueled speculation that demand for US goods could be limited. Nevertheless, the growing expectation of fresh USDA data and the end of the government shutdown led to a clearly positive price reaction towards the end of the week. The January contract for soybeans even approached a multi-month high. Soybean meal also benefited from the general market sentiment. In contrast, trading in rapeseed remained volatile in Europe. While prices in Paris recovered somewhat towards the end of the week, weak crude oil prices and uncertainty on the export markets depressed sentiment in the meantime. In Canada, on the other hand, canola moved within a narrow range, supported by the soy complex but held back by a lack of impetus from foreign trade.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The soybean market is showing clear signs of a short-term bullish phase, boosted by signs of political easing and the return of reliable USDA data. The positioning of market participants ahead of the Wasde report could provide further short-term price momentum, especially for soybeans. The decisive factor will be whether expectations of falling US yields are confirmed. At the same time, uncertainty about China's actual import strategy remains a risk factor. The weak export momentum of the previous weeks should also not be forgotten. The picture for rapeseed remains mixed, with the market reacting sensitively to external stimuli such as oil prices or political developments.
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