In the week from July 14 to 19, 2025, agricultural markets were influenced by a variety of factors: geopolitical tensions, new export figures from North and South America, weather-related forecasts and signs of new trade agreements.
On Monday, August contracts on the CBoT fell to 1,001.00 US cents/bushel, while soybean meal fell to USD 267.70/short ton. This was partly due to disappointing US export figures: At 147,045 tons, exports were down 63% on the previous week. The year-on-year comparison also showed a drop of 16.1 %. Mexico was the most important buyer with 32,507 tons.
Positive impetus then came over the course of the week. As early as Wednesday, the soybean price rose by 18.40 cents to 1,013.40 US cents/bushel, which represents a significant recovery. This was due to better weather forecasts for the Corn Belt, where 2-4 cm of rain was expected across the board.
It was also pleasing that the NOPA data for June processing showed a new record level: 185.7 million bushels of soybeans were processed - 5.8% more than in the previous year. This shows a positive processing trend despite the decline compared to May.
International influences came from South America: according to ANEC, Brazil exported an estimated 12.19 million tons of soybeans in July, an increase compared to the previous week and the previous year. At the same time, Chinese importers reported around 10.5 million tons of soybeans from all countries of origin for July - a clear sign of rising global demand.
International trade also picked up speed: Trump announced a preliminary trade agreement with Indonesia, which is expected to include agricultural exports worth USD 4.5 billion. This primarily supported expectations for the new 2025/26 marketing year, in which export sales of 529,600 tons of soybeans were reported - in line with market expectations.
The rapeseed market in Europe and the canola market in Canada were strongly influenced by geopolitical developments. At the beginning of the week, canola prices on the ICE in Winnipeg fell slightly to Can-$ 682.60, while European rapeseed on Euronext rose to € 477.50 per tonne.
This positive trend continued on Tuesday: the rapeseed contract for August rose to €476.25/t in Paris and November to €485.00/t. Canola also rose to 690.80 Can-$/t. The reasons for this were firm soybean oil prices and the hope that higher prices would motivate more farmers to sell.
However, the market turned again on Wednesday: canola lost Can-$ 14.80 to Can-$ 676.00/t as weather concerns in Canada increased. Analysts expect an average harvest in Saskatchewan and Alberta - assuming cooler temperatures and sufficient rainfall. In 2024, canola production was 17.8 million tons, with export revenues of around €9 billion. Target for 2025: 26 million tons.
The trade dispute between the USA and Canada remained a source of uncertainty. President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on canola, which is particularly critical as around half of Canada's exports go to the USA.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Experts are cautiously optimistic about future market developments. Robust demand from China and new trading partners such as Indonesia is supporting prices. Biofuel demand is also providing a tailwind, particularly for canola. At the same time, geopolitical risks - such as possible US tariffs - remain a factor of uncertainty. The weather in North America will also be decisive: timely rain could stabilize harvests, while too much precipitation could jeopardize quality.
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