The soy complex started the week on a firm note. On the CBoT, soybeans and soybean meal rose on the back of the eagerly awaited Nopa figures. Weaker USDA export figures, which were below the previous year, initially took a back seat. After the public holiday in the USA, the focus shifted to the processing data. Nopa reported higher processing for January than the market had expected, which gave prices stability. At the same time, soybean oil stocks rose significantly compared to the previous month and were well above the previous year's level, which slowed down the oil market and dampened the development of soybean meal.
Export reports dominated events in the middle of the week. Weekly US shipments were noticeably higher than the previous year, with China as the most important buyer. This gave the market support. Mixed signals came from South America. Brazilian exports in February are expected to be high and well above the previous year, even though the forecast was reduced slightly.
Towards the end of the week, the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum produced a veritable firework display of figures. The planned expansion of US acreage for 2026 and higher production largely met trade expectations. At the same time, the IGC reported rising global stocks of soybeans. Nevertheless, prices remained friendly, indicating robust demand.
Canola in Winnipeg was volatile, while rapeseed on Euronext rose significantly at the end of the week after some interim weakness.
A look at international events remains exciting. The USA is currently deploying as many troops to Iran as it did before the Iraq war in 2003, making a military conflict very likely. If the Iranians were to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for a US attack, this would have a direct impact on the price of crude oil. Furthermore, the trade conflict between the US and China could intensify again in this case. The Chinese recently purchased significantly more soybeans again.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The market is currently processing a wealth of data without a clear directional decision. Robust processing and strong exports suggest that demand will remain solid. At the same time, the planned expansion of space in the USA points to a more comfortable supply in the coming year. The decisive factor is likely to be how South American exports actually develop. In the short term, the soy complex will remain stable, but in the medium term, increased supply could have a dampening effect. The political situation regarding Iran could have a strong short-term impact on the market.
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