The soy complex was predominantly weak last week, although there were slight counter-movements towards the end of the week. Soybean meal in particular remained under pressure throughout. The downward trend was triggered by declining exports from the USA and, above all, the temporary suspension of Argentina's export tax. As a result of this measure, China ordered around 1.3 million tons of soybeans within a very short period of time, which dampened hopes of a return of Chinese purchases on the US market. The fact that the tax waiver only lasted for two days led to a stabilization in soybeans, but was not enough to support meal as well. The USDA's export figures of 724,500 tons were in the lower analyst range. US crop ratings deteriorated slightly, but remained within the seasonal range. Record soybean exports were reported from Argentina, exceeding 10.5 million tons in a season for the first time, according to the ministry.
In the rapeseed and canola market, good weather-related harvest conditions in Canada initially had a dampening effect on prices. In addition, there were massive declines in exports due to persistently high Chinese tariffs. Canola trading therefore remained volatile, but recovered somewhat towards the end of the week. In Paris, rapeseed prices moved only slightly. Support came from firm crude oil prices.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The markets for soybeans and canola are increasingly coming under geopolitical influence. The short-term Argentinian tax experiment in particular has shown how sensitive the US markets are to political intervention. The continued absence of Chinese purchases in the US is likely to weigh heavily in the medium term. There is also no relief in sight for soybean meal, especially as demand has weakened recently. In the rapeseed and canola market, possible harvest delays in Canada could provide new impetus, but structural sales problems are dampening the scope for upward movement. A clear directional decision is likely to come from the USDA report on storage levels, which is expected shortly.
You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!
