The eagerly awaited meeting between the presidents of the USA and China took center stage on the soybean market this week. The trade pause between the two countries, which was initially triggered by tariffs, caused a massive slump in US soybean exports. So far, China has not imported a single tonne from the USA. At the beginning of the week, the current development therefore provided a boost of hope. Despite disappointing shipment figures, the prices of soybeans and soybean meal rose significantly on Monday. This trend continued in the middle of the week, supported by optimistic reports of progress in preliminary talks at diplomatic level. Market participants were betting that Trump and Xi could achieve at least a symbolic rapprochement this Thursday. In fact, the summit meeting took place in a friendly atmosphere. Speculation about possible Chinese purchases of up to 180,000 tons in the run-up to the meeting remained unconfirmed, partly because the ongoing government shutdown in the US prevented the publication of official export data. According to Trump, the Chinese want to purchase large quantities of soybeans in the future. At least that is what he announced on board Airforce One.
In the oilseed segment, the rapeseed markets in Canada and Europe showed a stable positive trend. Prices were supported by speculation surrounding the APEC talks, which were also attended by the Canadian Prime Minister. Analysts expect progress on international trade issues to have an increasing impact on canola futures. Although the weak palm oil prices from Asia had a slightly dampening effect on the market as a whole, they were unable to break the firm trend in rapeseed.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The soybean market was strongly influenced by geopolitical factors this week. The prospect of an easing in the trade conflict between the USA and China led to temporary upward movements, particularly in soybean meal. However, as long as there are no concrete supply agreements, the market remains susceptible to setbacks. The lack of official export data as a result of the US shutdown is adding to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the rapeseed market is showing a stable upward trend, supported by international demand and political attention at the APEC summit. If concrete trade agreements are reached, this could give the oilseed complex a further boost, but if this does not happen, oilseeds are likely to come under renewed pressure.
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