Thu, July 11, 2024 Oilseeds
Soybeans:
In South America , the soybean harvests in June-24 have been completed. Brazil comes to 153 million tons (previous year 162 million tons). The result is still 7.7 % above the 5-year average. For the coming season in the first half of 2025, a result of 169 million tons is expected, but nothing has been sown yet. Argentina achieves around 50 million tons compared to the disastrous previous year with only 25 million tons. The result is still around 16 % above the 5-year average.
In the USA, a soybean harvest of 121 million tons is expected in autumn 2024 (previous year: 113 million tons). The main reason for the increase is an increase in acreage. In addition, yields per hectare are expected to be slightly higher than in the previous year.
In China, soybean production is expected to fall slightly with no change in acreage. As the world's largest importer with a trade share of around 60 %, the need for imports will continue to increase.
Rapeseed:
The 2024Canadian rapeseed harvest will fall short of previous years due to reduced acreage and only average yields, with production of 18.1 million tons. At just under 7 million tons, significantly less of this will be exported than in previous years.
In the EU-27, rapeseed harvests are also expected to decline due to lower acreage and yields. As an importing country, the European Community will have to increase its imports in order to cover the higher consumption. However, the exporting countries in question are only able to supply to a limited extent.
In Australia, a decline in production is expected due to a limited area under cultivation despite higher output, which could restrict exports somewhat.
Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to fall around 21% short of the previous year's figure. This is due to a smaller cultivation area and lower yields per hectare.
Palm oil:
In Indonesia , the world's largest palm oil producer, only an insignificant increase in palm oil production is forecast. Year-round production regularly peaks in October.
In Malaysia, the estimate of palm oil production remains unchanged compared to the previous year. Both countries together account for more than 80% of global production.
Oilseed prices:
The market leaders in the oilseed sector are soybeans and palm oil. After briefly soaring at the beginning of July, palm oil prices have fallen back to a multi-year average level. As the US soybean harvest approaches, stock market prices have fallen again. For competitive reasons, rapeseed prices are unable to escape the pressure from the two market leaders.
Oilseeds-Update,
Rapeseed is struggling against the general price decline and was unable to hold its own against falling soybean, rapeseed and palm oil prices. Yields in France are variable, but production is likely to remain at around 4 million tons. With the current closing price of €465.75/t on Euronext, European rapeseed was able to hold just above the support level of €460/t for the August contract.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
After the brief spike in rapeseed prices above the €500/t mark, prices have returned to a reduced level. The main reason for this is the falling prices of the two market leaders in the oilseed sector, palm oil and soybeans. The tight global supply situation for rapeseed will keep prices at an above-average level, albeit in competition with the market leaders.
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