Oilseeds News, 1st / Aug / 2024

Rapeseed prices continue to fluctuate in the range of 450 to 500 €/t and are therefore around 100 €/t higher than the medium-term average of previous years (excluding the period of the extraordinary Ukraine shock).

After a brief downturn, prices are currently trending back towards 480 €/t. The fundamental support is the tight global supply in this oilseed sector. However, rapeseed prices are tied into the global competition for vegetable oils. The market leaders are palm oil and soybeans. Significant upward momentum comes from rising palm oil prices. However, the upward trend is being slowed down considerably by the massive fall in soybean prices.

Rapeseed: The rapeseed harvests in the two largest production regions, which account for 45% of the total, are smaller. In Canada, only 18.3 million tons are expected (previous year: 20 million tons). The estimate for the EU-27 is 18.7 million tons instead of 19.8 million tons, with France and Germany remaining well below the usual 4 million tons or more at around 3.9 million tons each. The EU will have to increase its imports to around 6 million tons in order to cover demand. However, the problem is that the usual suppliers Canada and Ukraine will only be able to export a limited amount due to smaller harvests. Only Australia could provide more, but competition on the world market is fierce.

Soy: The global soy supply is estimated to be above average in 2024/25. The South American harvests completed in the first half of 2024 were already above the multi-year average and the upcoming harvests in North America are promising due to the increase in acreage.

Palm oil: In the two largest production regions, Malaysia and Indonesia, with a share of over 80%, production volumes are only expected to increase slightly. However, demand is significantly higher, particularly for the production of biofuel.