Rapeseed moved slightly southwards this week. However, the swings on the individual trading days were sometimes large. The closing price for the August futures contract yesterday (Thursday) was EUR 466.25 per tonne; the previous week, the contract was EUR 2 higher. The German Raiffeisen Association has adjusted its expectations for this year's German rapeseed harvest slightly upwards. While 3.877 million tons were expected in May, the DRV's latest harvest estimate is 3.891 million tons. At an expected 35.2 dt/ha, yields per hectare are slightly better than previously expected. Nevertheless, this year's rapeseed production is around 8 percent below last year's harvest volume. The European industry association Cocereal recently estimated the German rapeseed harvest at 3.92 million tons. For France, the largest rapeseed producer in Europe, the association issued a forecast of 4.47 million tons, slightly exceeding the previous year's figure of 4.33 million tons. Declines in production volumes are expected for Poland and Romania. According to the association, total European production is likely to be 19.13 million tons. The USDA had recently issued a harvest forecast of 19 million tons. Production is therefore around 4.9% below the previous year. The availability of rapeseed meal has recently improved somewhat and prices are trending lower.
Soybeans are also weaker for the week despite positive signs today (Friday). For the US growing regions, heavy rainfall is expected in some areas in the coming days, but as the plants usually have their most important vegetation phase in August, this will not yet have such a strong impact on yield expectations. Overall, the outlook remains positive. Soybean sowing has made rapid progress and is on target. Some analysts have reduced their forecasts for the current harvest in Brazil. However, the first voices are already being raised for the coming sowing season, assuming a significantly higher soybean cultivation area in Brazil. New record harvests could be achieved if the weather conditions are right. Overall, international demand is also weighing on the soybean market. Although China increased its purchases in the USA in May, the vast majority of Chinese imports continue to come from South America.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Soybeans are showing losses this week, but remain volatile overall, as the individual trading days on the Chicago stock exchange show. This is unlikely to change much in the coming week; the weather forecasts will now be decisive. The upcoming rapeseed harvest in Europe is also putting pressure on prices.
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