27.
09.24
Oilseeds under pressure - focus on weather in Brazil

Oilseeds News, 27th / Sep / 2024

Bullish
  • Global demand
  • Firmer vegetable oil prices and strong demand for US soybeans
  • Sowing conditions in Brazil
  • Import requirements of the EU
Bearish
  • Solid harvest forecast for the USA
  • Stocks of soy and canola high
  • Weaker economic growth in China

Rapeseed prices rose at the beginning of the week, partly due to dry sowing conditions for soybeans in Brazil. However, an easing of the situation due to rainfall could cause prices to fall again. Firmer vegetable oil prices and strong demand for US soybeans are also supporting the market. On the cash market, demand for German rapeseed remains calm as Ukrainian supplies cover demand. After an initial rally at the beginning of the week, the Winnipeg exchange saw a consolidation phase in the Carola contracts, which was favored by a weak international market environment. Analysts at the Canadian Agricultural Agency only slightly adjusted the forecast for canola for 2024/25. While the estimate for exports remained unchanged at 7.5 million tons, domestic consumption was raised to 12.2 million tons. Ending season stocks are estimated at 2.5 million tons.

Soybean futures recorded losses on Thursday, ending a previously positive trading phase. Soymeal futures also closed lower, falling between USD 1.10 and USD 1.90 per tonne, while soybean oil futures suffered even greater losses. Overall, the front months were hit the hardest. A key factor was the sharp fall in crude oil prices, which exerted additional pressure on soybean oil futures. In terms of export sales, the USDA reported that 1.574 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans were sold in the week ending September 19. This was a decrease from the previous week, but still within the expected range of 0.9 to 2 MMT. China was the largest buyer, purchasing 869,700 metric tons, while another 245,300 metric tons were sold to unknown destinations.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

On the oilseed markets, news from Brazil was the main source of trading movement this week. Overall, little has changed in terms of fundamental data. As on the grain markets, the USDA's quarterly report is eagerly awaited. In terms of prices, many market participants expect a slightly weaker trend due to the pressure on crude oil prices.

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12.
10.24
12:04

USDA estimate in Oct-2024: Oilseed market with little change from previous month The latest USDA estimate showed only minor changes to the global supply situation. Total production remains unchanged from the previous month, confirming a +4.5% year-on-year increase. At 687 million tons, a record level has been reached. This compares with a…

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29.
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08:44

Oilseeds: EU-KOM cuts rapeseed harvest 2024/25 below multi-year average. In its market report at the end of Sep. 2024, the EU Commission assumes a rapeseed harvest of only 17.1 million tons. This compares to 19.7 million tons in the previous year. The decisive factors here are the -7.3 % reduction in acreage and the -6.3 % drop in yields per…

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17.
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10:38

Oilseed market: high soybean supply, rapeseed and sunflower in short supply, palm oil limited. The 2024/25 oilseed market is positioned very differently depending on the raw material. Record harvests are expected for the dominant soybean sector until the first half of 2025. If consumption increases less strongly, stocks will rise and put pressure…

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