Rapeseed and canola prices have recently stabilized further and recorded moderate gains. A lower harvest volume in Europe and positive export news supported this price trend. Imports in the EU have recently risen further and, at 517,797 tons, are 24% above the previous year's level. Germany is currently the third largest importer after Belgium and the Netherlands. The main suppliers are Australia and Ukraine.
On Tuesday, the Chinese government announced an investigation into canola imports from Canada. It is suspected that the low prices may have led to an excessive increase in imports. Import volumes increased by 127% from 2022 to 2023, with the value of imports estimated at 3.5 billion US dollars - an increase of 170% compared to the previous year. In 2023, imports from Canada accounted for 94% of China's total canola imports. The sharp rise in imports has recently raised suspicions as domestic demand has weakened and domestic production has increased. This has led to a fall in prices for domestic rapeseed meal of more than 20 % since the beginning of the year. The Canadian side assumes that the investigations are a reaction to the announcement that an import duty of 100% is to be levied on electric vehicles from China in future. China is now considering looking for alternative suppliers of canola. In addition to Russia and Mongolia, Australia could be considered as a possible main supplier, although trade is currently low. Ukraine and the EU appear to be less realistic options due to limited trade relations and unfavorable yield forecasts.
The soy complex did not find a consistent direction in yesterday's trading. While the beans still made it into the profit zone, the meal contracts had to absorb moderate losses. At the end of the day, the soybean market received support from export reports, allowing prices to recover to some extent. Yesterday morning, private export sales for the 2024/25 crop were reported: 126,000 tons were sold to China and 189,700 tons to unknown destinations. Weekly export data is expected this morning due to the public holiday. Total sales volume for the new crop is expected to range from 800,000 tons to 2 million tons in the week of August 29. Soybean meal sales are estimated at 150,000 to 650,000 tons, while soybean oil sales are forecast at 0 to 20,000 tons.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Prices for rapeseed and canola were able to halt their downward trend for the time being and have recently firmed up again. The reduced harvest prospects and strong global demand are having a supportive effect. It remains to be seen how the investigation into Canadian imports by China will affect the canola market. If China takes advantage of alternative purchasing opportunities, this could lead to bearish impulses.
There is currently no clear direction on the soybean market. Today's export figures could provide a short-term direction. Overall, the market remains volatile.
You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!
