Rapeseed prices fell surprisingly sharply last week. This was triggered by crude oil prices, which fell from over 80 to under 75 $/bb. This was caused by discussions about the global economic crisis and the collapse of a number of international stock market prices.
Palm oil prices usually follow crude oil because a significant proportion of this raw material is processed into biofuel. Rapeseed, an oil-rich crop that also has a high proportion of biofuel processing, was consequently affected. Falling soybean prices also accompanied the downward trend.
Following the slump, prices are currently rising again. The political and military tensions in the Middle East are giving rise to fears that crude oil supplies could be jeopardized. On the other hand, rapeseed prices are being held back in their upward trend by the continuing fall in soybean prices.
The next USDA assessment of global harvest, consumption and trade data for the oilseed market will be published next Monday, Aug. 12, and may provide new guidance .
Below is the latest information on the market assessment
Rapeseed: The rapeseed harvest in Canada is now estimated at only 18.1 million tons (previous year: 18.7 million tons). The estimate for the EU-27 is 18.9 million tons (previous year: 20 million tons). EU imports are estimated to rise to 6 million tons. Low harvests in the exporting countries Canada and Ukraine mean that exports are limited. Australia could provide more, but competition from Asia, which is close to transportation, is fierce.
Soya: Global soya supplies are estimated to be above average in 2024/25. The South American harvests completed in the first half of 2024 were already above the multi-year average and the upcoming US harvest is estimated to rise to 120.7 million tons (previous year: 113 million tons).
Palm oil: In Malaysia and Indonesia, with a share of over 80%, production volumes are increasing only slightly. The increasing domestic use of biodiesel for blending limits the export potential.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The weak global economy is curbing demand for crude oil and oilseeds. The upward scope for prices is limited. Above-average global soybean supplies are putting pressure on prices. Political and military tensions in the Middle East are increasing price uncertainty
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