The Coceral estimate for the rapeseed market comes to a slightly higher harvest of 19.9 million tons (previous year: 19.5 million tons). A slightly larger area is more than compensated for by lower estimated yields of less than 30 dt/ha. France recorded a noticeable drop of - 0.65 million tons or -12 % and the UK also recorded a drop of -0.65 million tons or - 25 %. In both cases, excessive precipitation in the autumn/winter of 2012/13 was the cause of a smaller area under cultivation and weaker yields. The 0.5 million tonne increase in the German rapeseed harvest is mainly due to the expansion of acreage; average yields are expected to fall from 38.5 to 38 dt/ha.
The rapeseed supply balance in the EU remains in deficit, i.e. 2.3 million tons of rapeseed are expected to be imported. The need for imports will fall in line with the decline in domestic consumption, mainly due to biodiesel. It is estimated that 1.5 million tons of rapeseed will be imported from Ukraine and 0.5 million tons from Australia. Canadian imports are not included due to the GMO problem!
Conclusion:
The 2013/14 EU rapeseed harvest is slightly better, but there is little change in supply and only a limited impact on prices.
Soybean, palm oil and crude oil prices are of decisive importance for rapeseed prices.
Falling soybean prices in the future will put pressure on rapeseed yields in the fall.
