EU Commission estimates EU rapeseed harvest at 20 million tons.
The EU Commission's latest estimate of the 2013/14 rapeseed harvest has been revised downwards slightly. The harvest including Croatia is now estimated at 20.2 million tons. After the previous weak years, this is a good average harvest.
The EU is the world's largest producer of rapeseed, ahead of Canada with just under 15 million tons. However, the EU's domestic production is not sufficient to cover its own requirements. In the current year 2013/14, 3 million tons of imports are required, noticeably less than in previous years.
Import procurement remains difficult because EU import restrictions with regard to GMO approval limit the choice of supply locations. Canada, the largest exporter of rapeseed with more than 7 million tons per year, is hardly an option because the main varieties grown do not have EU approval.
Small production areas such as Ukraine, Belarus and Australia therefore come into closer consideration, albeit with smaller surpluses.
The decline in biodiesel consumption means that demand for the raw material remains limited. There has been stagnation in this area for several years. The EU's plans to eliminate subsidies are unlikely to lead to any further increases in production in the coming years.
With regard to pricing, the price development of the two competing products, palm oil and soybean meal, will play a key role. Current developments indicate that palm oil prices will remain at a relatively low level as a competitor to rapeseed oil. Soybean meal is currently going through a phase of higher prices again, but in view of the expected high soybean harvests in North and South America, a further major price increase is not to be expected.
From today's perspective, the prospects for very profitable rapeseed storage during the remainder of 2013/14 are not very promising.
