June 24: IGC revises global soybean supply further upwards
In its June 24 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) again revised global soybean production slightly higher than in the previous month. Global production is estimated at 415 million tons (previous year 392 million tons). Global consumption is expected to amount to 404 million tons (previous year: 382 million tons). This means that stocks will increase from last year's 68 million tons to this year's 79 million tons, the highest level to date. The supply situation can therefore be classified as particularly favorable for purchase prices in 2024-25.
Brazil, the world's largest soybean producer, has already almost completed its 2024 harvest with around 150 million tons (previous year: 156 million tons). Exports of soybeans are estimated at 96 million tons (previous year: 104 million tons). Domestically, 55 million tons are processed into soybean oil and soybean meal. For the coming year 2024/25, the soybean harvest is expected to exceed 161 million tons, but the seeds have not yet been sown.
The second-largest producer is the USA, with an expected harvest of 121 million tons in autumn 2024 (previous year: 113 million tons). Almost 50 million tons of these beans are to be exported. The rest will be processed into oil and meal and a significant proportion will be sold on the global market.
After a disastrous previous year with only 25 million tons,Argentina brought in 49 million tons this year. The country usually exports very few beans, but does export the processed products soybean oil, soybean meal and biodiesel from soybeans. The higher harvest puts the country back in a position to play a significant role on the global market.
China is expected to produce a slightly smaller soybean harvest of 20.5 million tons in 2024/25. Soybean imports are estimated to increase to 105 million tons, with the majority coming from Brazil.
In Ukraine, the soybean harvest is expected to increase to 5.2 million tons, of which 2.7 million tons (previous year: 2.9 million tons) will be exported, mainly to the EU-27.
Soybean production in the EU-27 is estimated at around 3 million tons for 2024/25. Bean imports are estimated at 17.2 million tons. A further 13 million tons of soybean meal will also be imported.
