Market analyses and forecasts Oilseed and crude oil markets 22.12.2025

Rapeseed

Weekly market development

• Global: USDA and other forecasts show rising global rapeseed production (including Australia, Canada, Russia) and higher ending stocks.

• EU context: Sufficient oilseed supply overall; no bottleneck signals.

Trend:

• EU & global: stable to slightly bearish

2-4 week outlook:

• Sideways, with slight downside risk as supply perception continues to increase.

Bullish:

• Stable demand for rapeseed oil

• Good processing margins

Bearish:

• Build-up of global ending stocks limits price increases

Crude oil

Weekly market development

• Prices: Crude oil recently moved sideways to slightly weaker

• Inventories: Slight reduction in crude oil inventories, but product inventories remain high

• Geopolitics: Individual supportive impulses (e.g. Venezuela issue), but no sustainable trend.

• Outlook energy agencies: Expectation of oversupply at the beginning of 2026.

Trend:

• Stable to slightly falling

2-4 week outlook:

• Sideways to slightly weaker, provided there are no geopolitical escalations.

Bullish:

• Geopolitical risk premiums

• Short-term supply disruptions possible

Bearish:

• Structural oversupply

• Subdued demand outlook

Summary

• Wheat: Sideways to slightly weaker - global oversupply dominates

• Corn: Stable to slightly firmer - strong exports and ethanol support

• Rapeseed: Sideways - rising stocks limit potential

• Crude oil: Sideways to slightly weaker - oversupply outweighs geopolitical risks