Rapeseed / Canola (oilseeds)
Latest trend: stable to slightly rising
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The IGC outlook for total grains/oilseeds implies moderate growth rates for oilseeds as well, supported by demand and increased supply.
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Specific to rapeseed/canola: In Europe, there are risks from drought stress and extreme weather conditions that could support prices. Market commentaries emphasize these uncertainties.
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In addition, the UFOP/IGC is forecasting a strong increase in sunflowers (closely related to oilseed markets), which will influence the overall supply environment for oilseeds.
Result stock/export changes:
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Global oilseed stocks to grow moderately according to IGC
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EU statistics show a decline in own production of rapeseed/canola, which could increase import dependency.
2-4 week forecast (rapeseed/canola):
A slight upward movement for rapeseed/canola is expected in the coming weeks, especially if regionally limited yield drops are reported. Nevertheless, the price increase is likely to be limited as long as global competition (soybeans, palm oil) and stock surpluses exist.
Crude oil (Crude Oil)
Recent trend: slightly rising to stable
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Crude oil is treated rather indirectly in the agricultural commentary sources, but the influence of biofuels, energy prices and macroeconomic conditions remains relevant.
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The US shutdown increases uncertainty: as many USDA/NASS data are canceled or postponed, market participants have fewer points of reference.
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Should demand (e.g. for diesel, gasoline, biofuels) develop unexpectedly or geopolitical risks come to a head, crude oil could react more strongly in the short term.
2-4 week forecast (crude oil):
In view of the data uncertainty, a moderate upward movement in crude oil is expected, provided demand remains stable and no supply disruptions occur. However, a sideways phase is also possible, especially if macro data fails to materialize or uncertainty about demand dominates.
