Rapeseed
Trends:
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Germany: According to the Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen e. V. (UFOP), rapeseed imports and processing declined slightly.
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Black Sea region: Reduced rapeseed production was forecast for Ukraine in 2025 (e.g. -160,000 tons), including the impact on exports.
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Price indicators (e.g. on bar chart for rapeseed futures) show that market participants are attentive, but no clear strong upward movements are firm.
2-4 week forecast/forecast:
Rapeseed in the EU is expected to stabilize to slightly increase - especially if the shortage due to Ukraine supply decline becomes noticeable. A strong price increase depends on the extent of the shortage and competition from alternative oilseeds.
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Bullish: + Supply risks in the Black Sea region could support the EU rapeseed market. + Good EU demand for oilseeds.
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Bearish: - Global supply for oilseeds increases, may put pressure on prices. - If alternative oilseeds (e.g. sunflower) offer attractive substitution options, demand for rapeseed could be weaker.
Crude oil
Trend (current): slightly rising, but fundamentally bearish
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Brent is currently trading at ~ USD 64.5/barrel (17.11.2025), around +6 % compared to a month ago, but around -12 % below the previous year's level.
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US inventories rose by +6.4 million barrels to around 427.6 million barrels in the week to November 7 - significantly more than expected by the market (≈ +2 million).
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In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA warns of a growing oversupply: a possible surplus of around 4 million barrels/day and significantly increased inventories (close to 8 billion barrels) are outlined for 2026.
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OPEC+ will increase production moderately in November/December 2025 (+137,000 bpd), but will pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026 in order to support the market.
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Summary
For this week, the following applies: For wheat and corn, slight downward or sideways trends dominate the EU/Germany market in the short term, supported by strong global supply and competition from the Black Sea region. Moderate support appears possible for the rapeseed market, mainly due to supply risks in Ukraine, but the environment remains complex.
