Rapeseed / Canola
Fundamental facts
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Specific figures for rapeseed in the WASDE/IGC are less prominent. Nevertheless, the USDA WASDE analyzes oilseed production and use (e.g. US oilseed production 125.8 million tonnes).
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EU/Germany: EU harvest expectations for rapeseed moderately higher, but supply increasing.
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Ukraine/Russia region: Ukraine exports rapeseed, production and export risks remain - could have an impact on the EU market.
Trend assessment
Rapeseed: Currently stable to slightly rising - demand for oilseed remains, and possible risk scenarios in the Black Sea region or for biodiesel could provide support. However, supply in the EU is growing, which is creating pressure.
2-4-week forecast
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Slight upward movement or stable prices in the coming weeks. A drop in supply or increased demand could support the market.
Bullish / Bearish points
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Bottlenecks in competing oilseeds or increased demand for biodiesel could support rapeseed/canola.
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Export problems in competitor regions could strengthen the EU market.
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Extended harvest in the EU or favorable import volumes could put pressure on prices.
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If there is no increase in demand, increasing supply could dominate.
Crude oil market data analysis & forecasts
Current situation
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Price level: Brent is currently trading at around USD 63-64/bbl; e.g. USD 63.19/bbl on 28.11.2025. This is around -1.8 % month-on-month and around -12-13 % below the previous year - i.e. a moderately weaker market.
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US inventories: US crude oil inventories (excl. SPR) stand at 426.9 million barrels as at 21.11.2025, slightly +0.7 % WoW, but still around 4 % below the 5-year average. Total oil products (incl. gasoline, distillates, etc.) at 1.682 billion barrels.
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Foundation: Oversupply looming: The IEA forecast sees a global oversupply of a good 4 million barrels/day in 2026; oil inventories have already risen to almost 8 billion barrels.
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OPEC+: OPEC+ decided on 30.11.2025 to keep current production volumes constant until the end of 2026; the existing cuts of around 3% of global demand (3.24 million bpd) will remain, but there will be no additional cuts for the time being.
Short-term trend:
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Prices: slightly falling to sideways.
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Stocks: rising slightly.
