Rapeseed / Canola
Trend: stable
- indirectly influenced by soybeans & vegetable oils
- Global oilseeds slightly scarcer (soy ↓)
- Biodiesel demand supports market
2-4 weeks forecast:
slightly rising
- Support from oilseed complex
- Limited downside potential
Soybean market
The soybean market has been mixed recently:
- Futures are trending sideways to slightly weaker, accompanied by declining open interest - an indication of consolidation.
- At the same time, the market remains closely linked to the energy sector: rising crude oil prices are supporting soybean oil in particular via biodiesel demand.
- Fundamentally, strong competition from South America continues to have a dampening effect on exports.
Crude oil
The crude oil markets are once again much firmer at the start of the week (!) . Brent is trading at around 108 $/bbl (+2.7 %) and WTI at just under 97 $/bbl (+2.6 %).
The background to this is the ongoing stalled negotiations between the USA and Iran as well as continuing disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The geopolitical tensions are also driving up prices - Brent is even moving back towards $110/bbl at times.
Trend: Energy market with a clear upward trend in the short term, driven by geopolitical risk and supply shortages.
Very high geopolitical dependency
Trend last week: falling
- recent significant price declines (~-4-5%)
- geopolitical easing weighs on prices
Pay attention to the fallback problem:
If conflict is resolved energy prices weaker = pressure on vegetable oils/biodiesel
