Rapeseed / Canola
Market situation (EU & global)
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EU rapeseed market: The latest figures from the EU Commission show that this year's EU harvest is likely to be slightly below last year's (estimated -1.5% to -2%). Yields vary greatly from region to region - Northern and Western Europe are reporting decent results, while heat and water shortages have left their mark in parts of Eastern Central Europe.
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Canada (ICE Canola): Weather risks have recently supported prices there after persistent drought in Saskatchewan and Alberta depressed yield forecasts. The production outlook was revised slightly downwards.
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Price relations: The rapeseed-soybean price spread (rapeseed oil content ≈ 40%) remains stable as vegetable oil prices are trending friendly across the complex, while canola meal is supported by moderate feed demand.
Bull factors (bullish)
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Tighter EU harvest, especially if imports from Ukraine/Russia arrive more slowly.
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Stable to firm vegetable oil market (palm oil & soybean oil) supports rapeseed prices.
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Weather uncertainties in Canada → risk of further production cuts.
Bearish factors (bearish)
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Good inventories in the EU after imports in Q2.
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Pressure from cheap sunflower and soybean oil supplies.
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Slow biodiesel demand recovery in parts of the EU.
Short-term trend: stable to slightly rising
2-4 weeks forecast: Euronext 430-450 €/t, tight trade with upside opportunities in case of vegetable oil rally or export disruptions.
Soybeans
Market situation (USA & global)
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US crop 2025: The WASDE report from 12.08. shows stable to slightly improved yield forecasts. Nevertheless, ending stocks have been revised slightly downwards, which is supporting the market in the short term.
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Weather conditions: In the most important US growing regions, the weather has been predominantly favorable recently, with slight periods of heat without major damage. According to the USDA, around 69% of stocks are in good to excellent condition.
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Export momentum: Sales to China remain irregular. Although there have been some major deals in recent weeks, overall demand is slightly below the previous year's level.
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South America: The next sowing season is imminent in Brazil; the weak real could make export prices there more competitive.
Bullish factors (bullish)
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Lower US ending stocks than expected by the market.
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Fund purchases in soybean oil and soybean meal support futures.
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Potentially stronger Chinese import demand as inventories are reduced.
Bearish factors (bearish)
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Favorable weather conditions in the USA → Production risks currently low.
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Competition from Brazil & Argentina (new export waves from Q4).
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Weakness in the biofuel sector could dampen soybean oil prices.
Short-term trend: slightly bullish
2-4 week forecast: CME 9.90-10.20 $/bu; potential up to 10.40 $ with stronger export demand.
