Rapeseed / canola - stabilization despite global abundance of oilseeds
The oilseed complex is characterized globally by high production volumes and rising ending stocks, particularly for soybeans in South America.
At the same time, the IGC analysis signals rising oilseed production and higher global stocks overall, which structurally limits the price increase.
Nevertheless, the rapeseed price is comparatively stable in the short-term market. This indicates that regional demand and processing impulses (e.g. meal and biodiesel complex) are partially offsetting the global supply glut.
Classification:
The rapeseed market is in a balance between abundant global supply and stable demand. This results in a sideways to slightly firm trend in the short term, without any clear bullish momentum.
High global oilseed production limits the upside potential, while demand from processing and biodiesel is stabilizing the market.
Short-term price trend:
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Euronext rapeseed: slight gains on February 12 (May 2026 around 488 €/t, +1 €/t).
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Indications from the latest Euronext price series also show stable to rising rapeseed prices overall since the start of the year.
Crude oil - demand concerns and inventory build-up dominate
The short-term environment on the energy market is deteriorating. Falling demand forecasts, rising inventories and declining geopolitical risks have recently led to significant price falls for Brent and WTI.
Additional pressure is being exerted by a sharp rise in US crude oil inventories and lower refinery capacity utilization, which point to weaker short-term demand.
Structurally, the market also remains characterized by an expected oversupply in 2026, as rising supply meets subdued demand.
At the same time, global inventory build-ups and increased stocks show that there is sufficient physical supply.
Classification:
The overall situation suggests a sideways to downward trend. Price rises are likely to be largely geopolitically driven and therefore not very sustainable.
The energy market remains characterized by demand concerns and rising inventories, which will limit price increases.
Short-term trend:
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WTI crude oil was recently around USD 62.8/barrel, signaling an overall subdued price level.
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At the same time, market reports have recently shown falling weekly prices and thus a negative short-term trend.
