MARS: Yield estimates based on climate data from May 1 to June 23, 2013.
EU crop yields just above multi-year average.
In its latest report, MARS - the European Agricultural Meteorological Observatory - has forecast crop yields for the EU that are only just above the 5-year average at +2.6%. Significant improvements can be seen in Spain, Romania and Hungary due to climate developments, while deterioration is expected in parts of Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Yields for winter barley have been revised upwards by only +2%, and for spring barley by 11%. For maize, an increase of just under 2% above the multi-year average is expected, based on the precipitation and temperature development to date in the large cultivation areas of south-eastern Europe.
Rapeseed yields have been downgraded by just under 1% to a below-average level. Weak yields are expected in Germany, France and Poland, the 3 largest growing regions. Unfavorably distributed rainfall and delayed spring development are cited as the causes.
Potato yields are expected to grow by 1 % and sugar beet yields by only 0.6 %. This is due to an unfavorable start phase in spring in large parts of northern Europe.
Although the comparisons with last year's weak results are significantly better, they are only of limited informative value.
Growth conditions in Europe are very mixed. There was excess rain in large parts of southern Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and a series of dry and hot days in other parts of south-eastern Europe. The UK has suffered greatly from the after-effects of the excessive rainfall in the fall and spring. Weaker harvests in both market and fodder production are causing problems for UK farmers. Among other things, milk production has fallen drastically due to the lack of basic feed supplies.
As at 18.06.2013
ZMP opinion: Differentiated crop forecasts - based on specific climate data in the individual regions - are a significant improvement in crop forecasting compared to the usual trend yield projections. Nevertheless, reservations always remain due to weather developments in the decisive yield formation phases.
