EU Commission estimate (July edition): Rapeseed supply balance 2013/14
In its latest publication, the EU Commission estimates the 2013/14 EU rapeseed harvest at 19.9 million tons, slightly higher than in previous forecasts.
The new harvest estimate is automatically associated with an increase in imports. The supply situation has changed only slightly compared to previous years.
Germany remains the largest producer, ahead of France. Poland and the UK move into 3rd place. Compared to the 5-year average, France, Finland and Romania suffered the biggest drop in production due to weather conditions, at over 10%. However, the UK, Germany and some southern European countries are also below their multi-year production potential. Spain, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece and Sweden are above the multi-year average with an increase of 10 %.
The new estimate continues the downward trend in rapeseed production and consumption in the EU. The main reason for this is the declining use of biodiesel and price competition with cheap palm oil. Even the recently imposed import duties have done little to change this fundamental trend.
Rapeseed prices have plummeted in recent weeks. The fundamental reason for this is the continuous decline in prices for vegetable oils, originally triggered by palm oil, but increasingly dragged down by soybean and rapeseed oil. Falling soybean meal prices in recent times have dragged the by-product rapeseed meal down with them.
A plentiful supply situation is forecast for the entire oilseed market in the coming 2013/14 year. This applies in particular to vegetable oils, while there is still some catching up to do on the consumption side of the meal market.
As the value of rapeseed is more than three-quarters dependent on vegetable oil, there is little chance of recovery for the fallen rapeseed prices.
