Rapeseed price recovery just a flash in the pan?
The figures published by the International Grains Council (IGC) on the rapeseed and soybean market have created a temporary mood on the Paris stock exchange. Rapeseed prices exceeded the €400/t mark, but then fell again.
The IGC forecast, which announced a tight supply situation for the rapeseed market in 2013/14, is seen as the background to this. Rapeseed stocks at the end of the year would be lower than they have been for years. Rapeseed is in short supply worldwide.
This contrasts with a record soybean harvest forecast of 284 million tons. IGC points to the high South American harvest results and the high hopes for the coming US soybean harvest. According to IGC, final soybean stocks are expected to rise by 28%.
However, looking at the rapeseed market in isolation for the purposes of price assessment is not appropriate. The rapeseed market is a small part (13%) of the overall oilseed market, whose products are largely interchangeable in terms of vegetable oil and to a limited extent in terms of oilseed meal. The two market leaders are soybean and palm oil. Crude oil puts the lid on everything.
High soy harvests and high palm oil stocks are putting pressure on prices. As a competing product, rapeseed cannot break free from this grip, so that the price range for this oilseed remains quite limited, no matter how tight rapeseed supplies are.
