Are the extremely low rapeseed prices justified or is it typical stock market speculation?
Rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange have fallen to around 360 €/t within a short period of time. Just two months earlier, prices were trading at around €500 per tonne. Is the fall in prices at this level justified or is it a case of exaggerated stock market speculation?
In principle, 0.4 tons of rapeseed oil can be obtained from 1 ton of rapeseed with good technology. However, the yield varies between 33% and 41% depending on the technology. The machine and energy costs for pure pressing or diffusion technology vary accordingly.
The rapeseed oil price is quoted at an uncertain €760/t. With 0.4 tons of rapeseed oil at 760 €/t, the pure oil value in rapeseed without deduction of storage, transportation and processing costs is 304 €/t.
The by-product rapeseed meal, taking into account losses of 0.56 tons, is currently traded at € 216/t (with a downward trend). In relation to rapeseed, this is a value share of around 121 €/t.
The total value is calculated at 425 €/t without transportation and processing costs. The difference between 425 and 360 €/t = 65 €/t is the maximum available for storage, transportation and processing costs including profit shares. The usual impact wages vary between 40 and 80 €/t, depending on the use of technology with different capacities. In the case of the technology assumed above, the average value is around 75 €/t.
Stock market speculation looks different!
