What impact do tariffs have on the price of soybean meal?
The latest US tariff policy and its counter-tariffs have different direct and indirect effects on international soybean trade for the EU-27, depending on the product.
Soybeans: The EU-27 imports around 42% of its bean import requirements from the USA. A further 22 % comes from Brazil and around 9 % from Ukraine. The beans are processed and consumed in this country to produce soybean oil and soybean meal.
Soybean meal: In contrast, around 91% of EU meal imports come from South America, with Brazil (6.7 million tons) and Argentina (5.1 million tons) in first place. US origins are of minor importance at around 5%.
US tariffs and counter-tariffs have different effects in the countries concerned. The greatest direct effects will occur in trade between the USA as a supplier and China as an importer.
- In China, US beans are already too expensive compared to Brazilian beans due to tariffs (as at 15.04.2025: 125% tariff), with the result that US goods will increasingly be in surplus in the new harvest and will experience price pressure. At the moment, US sales are coming to an end, while Brazilian exports are only just getting started.
- This also applies to the EU in principle, with a significantly lower penetration rate. However, EU import duties on US soy will not apply until Dec. 2025. For the time being, however, a 3-month "tariff pause" applies.
- Increased Chinese and European demand for soy on the South American continent is in turn driving up prices there.
In the case of EU soybean meal imports, 90% of which come from South America, the tariff-related price effects will be felt indirectly: soybean meal prices are derived to a certain extent from bean prices.
From April 10, 2025, US tariffs of 145% will be in force on Chinese deliveries. In return, China will impose a 125% counter-duty. China is exempt from the latest 3-month US tariff pause.
For the EU, a 10% or 20% tariff (25% for cars and machinery) will initially apply.
