US seed level for soybeans as of July 15, 2013 (Crop Progress)
The development of soybean stocks has entered its decisive yield phase until the middle/end of August. The price formation on the stock exchanges during this phase is a direct reflection of the harvest prospects.
The sowing of soybeans is largely finished, even the second crops grown after wheat with about half the expected yield are no longer sown after July 15 because the risk of a failed harvest is too great.
70% of the soybean crop is rated as "good to excellent", even if it is a few weeks behind in its development. 26 % of the crops are only in the flowering phase; on average over the years, it should have been 40 % by this time.
This worries farmers in the northern parts because they always have to worry that early frosts could interrupt the later ripening of the soybeans.
If it becomes too dry over the next few weeks, the plant simply sheds its inflorescences, preventing the grain from forming. The subsequent flowering period usually no longer produces a yield.
The weather outlook is mixed. In the Midwest, some areas are still threatened by drought. In the remaining areas, the weather forecasts predict some small amounts of precipitation with moderate temperatures. Overall, there is a growing conviction that last year's drought disaster will not be repeated.
The USA is expecting a record harvest of 92 million tons this year (previous year: 82 million tons).
In conjunction with the delayed delivery of the record South American harvest, a sharp increase in supply is expected from October 2013 at the latest. Prices on the stock exchanges are already expected to fall significantly by more than 26% compared to the July quotation.
However, the decisive yield formation phase has not yet begun.
