Above-average increase in global soybean supply in 2024/25
Global soybean production in 2024-25 will grow at an above-average rate of +8.5% compared to the previous year. The North and South American countries are the main contributors, accounting for around 80% of production.
The use of soy is estimated at around 403 million tons. A comparison of production and consumption shows a strong increase in stocks of +19.5 %. Based on current knowledge, an above-average supply situation is therefore assumed for 2024/25, resulting in falling prices.
In the USA, an estimated harvest of just under 125 million tons is currently growing on an increased acreage. The weekly stock assessments are more favorable than in previous years. The Americans are expected to export around 50 million tons of beans (previous year: 46 million tons) and just under 16 million tons of soybean meal.
In Brazil, the completed harvest of 153 million tons in the first half of 2024 is expected to be followed by a further increase of well over 160 million tons in the following year. However, sowing does not begin until Oct. 24, so there are still a number of cultivation, growth and harvest risks. Brazilian soybeans are exported in the order of 105 million tons. In addition, there are around 21 million tons of soybean meal.
In Argentina, soybean production is stabilizing at around 50 million tonnes. In the first half of 2024, 49 million tons were reached and 51 million tons are even expected for the following year. Only 5.5 million tons of soybeans will be exported from this country. Exports of processed products such as soybean meal (27 million tons), soybean oil (5.5 million tons) and biodiesel from soybeans predominate.
On the demand side, China is at the forefront with a soy consumption of around 127 million tons (= 31% of global consumption), of which 109 million tons (= 60% of global trade) are imported. Just under 21 million tons are produced domestically.
The EU-27 produces around 3 million tons of soy. Around 14 million tons of beans, around 16 million tons of soybean meal and 0.5 million tons of soybean oil are imported to cover demand. Imports have not increased for over a decade.
