COCERAL expects good average EU rapeseed harvest in 2025
In its March 25 forecast, COCERAL estimates the EU rapeseed harvest in 2025 at around 19.2 million tons (previous year: 17.2 million tons), again above the average level of the last 5 years (18.2 million tons). The main reasons for this are the +5.8 % increase in cultivation areas and +5.2 % higher yield expectations compared to the weak previous year.
In France, the EU's largest rapeseed growing region, the 2025 rapeseed harvest is expected to be just over 4 million tons, around 3.7% higher than in the previous year. Higher yields per hectare should more than compensate for the reduced cultivation area.
In Germany, yields are also expected to be higher than in the previous year at 35 dt/ha with little change in acreage. However, at 3.85 million tons, the 2025 harvest remains below the multi-year average of previous results.
In Poland, the 3rd largest production region, the harvest is expected to increase by 7% to 3.5 million tons with a slight increase in acreage and a trend towards higher yields.
In Romania, a harvest of 2.1 million tons is estimated compared to the previous year's poor harvest of 1.1 million tons. The 70% increase in acreage as well as good average yields per hectare contributed significantly to the result.
Overall, higher harvests are expected in the remaining small EU rapeseed-growing countries, which will add up to around 4.6 million tons (previous year: 3.8 million tons).
Overall, it should be noted that the EU rapeseed harvest in 2025 is particularly dependent on the high average yield expectations in addition to the increased cultivation area. This involves a certain estimation risk, as a high degree of weather dependency in the yield formation phase must still be taken into account. For the time being, however, the increased acreage provides a significant degree of certainty for the harvest forecast.
The forward prices on the exchanges for the harvest month of Aug. 2025 show prices of 460 €/t compared to prices at the 500 €/t line. However, the confusing customs policies are currently playing a decisive role in the price trend. Recently, China's import restrictions for Canadian rapeseed (around 50 % of exports) have been causing price movements. Added to this is the increase in the purchasing power of the euro, which is making the necessary EU imports cheaper. In general, rapeseed prices are strongly influenced by the market leaders palm oil and soybeans.
Rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange (Aug. -2025 contract)
