Oilseeds: EU-KOM cuts rapeseed harvest 2024/25 below multi-year average.
In its market report at the end of Sep. 2024, the EU Commission assumes a rapeseed harvest of only 17.1 million tons. This compares to 19.7 million tons in the previous year. The decisive factors here are the -7.3 % reduction in acreage and the -6.3 % drop in yields per hectare. The two largest production areas, France and Germany, were the first to suffer high harvest losses.
Rapeseed consumption is also expected to be significantly reduced to 22.5 million tons (previous year: 24.3 million tons). Two years ago, the figure was 25.9 million tons. Around 5.9 million tons of imports are required to cover demand. As before, the main suppliers are Ukraine and Australia.
Rapeseed prices caught between high palm oil and low crude oil prices
The global and EU-wide shortage of rapeseed supplies should actually contribute to very high prices. However, rapeseed only accounts for a 15% share of the oilseed market compared to the two market leaders, palm oil and soybeans. Rapeseed prices are part of the international sales competition for oilseeds and vegetable and mineral oils.
Support for high rapeseed prices comes from the current extremely high palm oil prices, which have risen from €800 to over €900 per tonne. This is due to the scarce quantities from the current harvest and reduced stocks. The increase in the addition of biodiesel to fuel in Indonesia is further limiting availability.
However, the current sharp fall in crude oil prices is slowing down potential increases in rapeseed, as the high proportion used for biofuel production counteracts this. The low crude oil prices are initially a consequence of the weak global economy. OPEC has announced an increase in oil production, but it remains to be seen whether this will happen. There is a lot of unpredictable politics at play.
Soy products are also susceptible to price reductions due to the above-average supply situation in this market with high harvests in North and South America.
