Record high soybean supply at global level
In its latest Oct. 2024 edition, the IGC estimates global soybean production at 421 million tons (previous year: 395 million tons). Consumption, on the other hand, will only increase to 406 million tons (previous year: 386 million tons). This results in an increase in stocks to 86 million tons or 21% of consumption (previous year 18.4%). This would be enough for 77 days (previous year 67 days).
In Brazil, the world's largest producer, a production volume of 163 million tons is expected for spring 2025. The previous harvest at the beginning of 2024 was already above average at 152.5 million tons. Brazilian exports are estimated at 105 million tons. More than half of this goes to China.
In the second-largest production region, the USA , the harvest is still estimated at just under 125 million tons. Domestic consumption is estimated to rise to 69 million tons and around 50 million tons are exported.
In Argentina, the soybean harvest in the first half of 2024 amounted to around 49.5 million tonnes. In the disaster year 2023, it was only 25 million tons. A harvest of around 51 million tons is forecast for the coming harvest in spring 2025. Argentina processes most of its beans domestically and primarily exports soybean meal, soybean oil and biofuels made from soybean oil.
Soybean production in China is estimated to fall slightly to 20 million tons. It is expected that 108 million tons will have to be imported to cover consumption. This means that China accounts for 60% of world trade.
For the EU-27, the IGC estimates domestic production at 2.9 million tons. EU bean imports are estimated at 14.9 million tons. This is in addition to 16 million tons of soybean meal.
The high supply prospects are leading to corresponding price pressure. Despite support, soybean prices are falling on the leading stock exchanges due to the tight supply situation for vegetable oils, with a focus on palm oil and rapeseed oil.
