Above-average soybean market supply
The IGC underscores the currently above-average supply situation on the global soybean market, with some minor deviations from the previous month. Global production is estimated at 419 million tons (previous year: 395 million tons). The IGC estimates consumption at 408.5 million tons. This results in an increase in stocks of +15% to 82 million tons or 20% of consumption. This means that the supply situation is well above average compared to previous years.
Of the world's 3 largest production regions in North and South America, Brazil is in first place with an upcoming harvest of 164 million tons in the first half of 2025 (previous year: 152.5 million tons). Around 105 million tons of this production volume will be exported.
The 2024 US harvest is largely complete at 121 million tons (previous year: 113.3 million tons). At the end of the harvest, the previously higher expectations have not been fully met. US exports are estimated to rise to 69 million tons.
In Argentina, soybean harvests will stabilize again in the first half of 2025 at around 51.5 million tonnes. Around 49 million tons of this will be exported in the form of beans, meal and oil.
The world's largest consumer is China with a total volume of just under 128 million tons. Of this, 108 million tons are imported, mainly from Brazil.
With domestic production remaining unchanged at 2.8 million tons, the EU-27 has to import a further 15 million tons of beans to cover its demand. In addition, there are around 17 million tons of soybean meal.
In line with the market situation, soybean prices have been falling for months with some fluctuations. The decline would have been even more pronounced if palm oil prices had not risen so sharply in Oct./Nov.
