July 2024: IGC updates global soybean market situation 2024/25 at record level
In its latest July 24 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) publishes an updated estimate of the supply situation on the global soybean market. Global production is raised to 415 million tons (previous year: 392 million tons); the IGC estimates consumption at 404.5 million tons (previous year: 384 million tons). Stocks are expected to grow again to 79.5 million tons (previous year: 69 million tons).
The global soybean market is mainly dominated by the 3 North/South American producing countries USA, Brazil and Argentina. On the consumption side,1. China and the EU-27 are far and away in first place on the consumption side.
Brazil is the world's largest producer with 150 million tons in the 2024 harvest, of which 97 million tons will be exported. The target for next year, 2025, is already 161.5 million tons.
The USA is in second place with a harvest expectation of around 121 million tons in Sep/Oct 2024. Exports are estimated to rise to 69 million tons.
After the disastrous previous years,Argentina harvested just under 50 million tons in the first half of 2024 (previous year: 25 million tons). The country mainly exports soybean oil, soybean meal and biodiesel from soybean oil. Bean exports are low.
On the import side, China is in first place with a little changed import volume of 107 million tons or 60% of global trade. Domestic production is only 20.5 million tons. The EU will achieve soybean production of around 3 million tons in 2024 and import around 17 million tons of beans and 14 million tons of meal.
The current and future market situation is characterized by an above-average supply situation in 2024/25. Accordingly, soybean prices remain under price pressure.
