The USDA's Sep. 2024 estimate for oilseed supply in 2024/25 confirmed an above-average global supply situation overall, despite a slight downward revision compared to the previous month. Total production increases by +4.5% to 687 million tons. Consumption is estimated at 667.5 million tons. Inventories increase by +15.3 % compared to the previous year. However, the partial results vary.
With a production share ofover 62%, soy is the most important in the oilseed business. For 2024/25, the USDA estimates a volume of 429 million tons, significantly higher than the previous year's figure of around 395 million tons. The largest share of this is due to future Brazilian production at 169 million tons (previous year: 153 million tons). The imminent US harvest is estimated at just under 125 million tons (previous year: 113 million tons). In Argentina, production is stabilizing again at 51 million tonnes. In China, production remains at a slightly reduced 20.7 million tons. In the EU, around 3 million tons of soya are expected.
Soy consumption worldwide is led by China with a volume of 127 million tons. Around 109 million tons of this must be imported. Most of this comes from Brazil.
The EU-27 imports 14.6 million tons of soybeans, plus 16.2 million tons of soybean meal and small quantities of soybean oil.
According to USDA calculations, global soybean stocks in 2024/25 will rise to a record 134.6 million tons (previous year: 112.25 million tons). This will result in a far above-average supply situation in this submarket.
The USDA again estimates global rapeseed production in 2024/25 to be lower at just 87.5 million tons (previous year: 89.4 million tons). While a rising harvest of 20 million tons (previous year: 19.2 million tons) is forecast for Canada, the USDA estimates the EU harvest at just 17.65 million tons (previous year: just under 20 million tons). China's rapeseed production will fall to 15.6 million tons; a harvest of 12.1 million tons is forecast for India.
Global rapeseed imports in 2024/25 are expected to fall to 16.9 million tons. According to USDA estimates, the EU will account for the largest share at 6.6 million tons. China's imports are expected to fall to 3.4 million tons (previous year: 4.9 million tons), possibly as a result of the Canadian-Chinese conflict.
The 20% decline in rapeseed stocks signals a tight supply situation in this submarket.
Sunflower seed production is experiencing a significant decline (- 15 %). The growing regions in Ukraine, Russia, the EU and Argentina are particularly affected. Stocks are down more than 32% on the previous year.
Alongside soybean oil, palm oil (80 million tons) is the most important vegetable oil with a market share of around 35%. In contrast to previous years, growth rates have fallen significantly in recent years to just +1.2%. Production has stagnated in Indonesia, the world's largest growing region with 47 million tons, while in Malaysia, the second largest region, the increase to 19.8 million tons is only minimal. With a moderate increase in consumption, stocks are falling. Prices on the stock exchanges are correspondingly high.
In 2024/25, the oilseed market will be caught between above-average soybean supplies and, in some cases, very tight supplies of rapeseed, sunflower and palm oil. The prices for the individual products will develop depending on the focus of the oil and protein ingredients. With a certain degree of interchangeability, prices will influence each other
