USDA estimate in Oct-2024: Oilseed market with little change from previous month
The latest USDA estimate showed only minor changes to the global supply situation. Total production remains unchanged from the previous month, confirming a +4.5% year-on-year increase. At 687 million tons, a record level has been reached.
This compares with a consumption volume of 668 million tons (previous year 646 million tons). The result is a considerable increase in stocks of just under 15 % to around 151 million tons. International trade only changed within a manageable range of 203 million tons on average.
Soybeans continue to expand their market leadership among oilseeds with around 429 million tons (previous year: 394.7 million tons). Consumption is expected to rise to 406 million tons in 2024/25, leaving plenty of scope for an increase in stocks from last year's 112.4 million tons to this year's 134.5 million tons.
On the production side, Brazil is far ahead with an expected harvest of 169 million tons and the USA with a current harvest of 124.7 million tons. Argentina's production is stabilizing again at 51 million tonnes.
Global exports are led by Brazil with a slight increase of 105 million tons of beans plus 20 million tons of soybean meal. This is followed by the USA with an export volume of around 50 million tons of beans (previous year 46 million tons) and 16 million tons of soybean meal. Argentina is the main exporter of soybean products in the form of oil (5.5 million tons) and meal (27 million tons); biofuels made from soybean oil are also exported.
At 87.4 million tons, the global rapeseed harvest remains below the previous years' results of around 89 million tons. The decisive factors are the harvests in the two main growing regions, Canada, with an estimated 20 million tons and the weak EU result of only 17.1 million tons. China will not reach the 16 million tons mark this year, while India is expected to achieve slightly more than 12 million tons. The high expectations of an above-average rapeseed harvest in Australia were diminished by frost damage of an as yet unknown amount.
Among the other oilseeds, the poor sunflower results of -9.6%, mainly in the Eastern European countries, stand out.
Despite somewhat reduced production of 80 million tons, palm oil maintains its market leadership in the vegetable oil sector. The main production areas are Indonesia with a slightly lower 46.5 million tons and Malaysia with an unchanged 19.8 million tons. With a slight increase in consumption, inventories fell to the previous year's level.
High palm oil prices combined with high crude oil prices are keeping rapeseed prices high.
