Oilseed market: high soybean supply, rapeseed and sunflower in short supply, palm oil limited.
The 2024/25 oilseed market is positioned very differently depending on the raw material. Record harvests are expected for the dominant soybean sector until the first half of 2025. If consumption increases less strongly, stocks will rise and put pressure on prices.
In contrast, a pronounced shortage is expected in the rapeseed and sunflower market in 2024/25 with lower market shares. According to US reports, the EU in particular is set to significantly increase its rapeseed imports to over 6 million tons in order to cover the shortfall.
The supply of palm oil, which has been steadily increasing in previous years, primarily from Indonesia and Malaysia, is currently stagnating. In the market for vegetable oils, palm oil is the market leader alongside soy with a share of 35%. In Indonesia in particular, the raw material is increasingly being used for biofuel production. The product is traded at an above-average level on the stock exchanges.
The vegetable oils are to a certain extent interchangeable, especially when it comes to their use for biofuels.
There is a high global supply of soybean oil, but scarce quantities of rapeseed and palm oil.
The not inconsiderable partial use of the various oils for biofuel production leads to a competitive relationship not only between the raw materials themselves, but also with crude oil. The price of crude oil is currently at a comparatively low level due to weak global economic demand.
This market constellation is leading to tensions in pricing, with prices moving in one direction or the other depending on the focus of the information available.
Rapeseed , as an oil-rich crop, is strongly influenced by palm oil and crude oil prices. But the market-significant soybean prices also have an impact. At present, the Canadian-Chinese trade conflicts are unsettling the further development of rapeseed prices, which are currently hovering slightly above 450 €/t for the Nov. 24 date on the Paris exchange.
