USDA with slightly lower 2024/25 harvest estimate for the oilseed market.
In the updated March 2025 edition, the USDA has revised global oilseed production slightly downwards. Global production is estimated at 679 million tons and consumption at 673 million tons. Ending stocks are down only slightly to 139 million tons. Despite the cuts to the previous month's estimate, the supply situation in this market remains at an above-average level.
Global soybean productionremains unchanged at 421 million tons. Consumption increases to 412 million tons. Only a small amount of stocks will be used.
Brazil remains the world's largest producer at 169 million tons, ahead of the USA. The South American country exports 105 million tons of this, mainly to China. China's current tariff dispute with the USA suggests that Brazilian deliveries to the Middle Kingdom could increase further. However, this is countered by China's restrictive import policy, which is justified by a lower pig population and efforts to increase self-sufficiency.
The US soybean harvest in 2024 is still estimated at 118.8 million tons. The USDA is still assuming bean exports of 49.7 million tons and soybean meal exports of just under 16 million tons. While the back and forth on US tariffs and counter-tariffs increases the uncertainty of future trade flows, US exports are coming to an end, while Brazil is increasingly entering trade in the coming months due to its Feb/Mar harvest dates.
The Argentine soybean harvest is estimated to be unchanged at 49 million tons. Of this, 4.9 million tons of beans will be exported, while soybean meal exports are estimated to rise to 30 million tons. There will also be 7.3 million tons of soybean oil.
The global rapeseed harvest in 2024 is estimated to remain largely unchanged at 85.7 million tons. In Canada , 18.8 million tons will be reached, while the harvest result in the EU has been significantly downgraded to 17.24 million tons; the USDA estimates EU imports at 7 million tons, which is significantly higher than the EU Commission.
The latest Chinese import ban on Canadian rapeseed deliveries is causing the market to move violently with a trade volume of 5 million tons. Prices on the Paris stock exchange have currently fallen below the €500/t mark.
Palm oil production, which accounts for the largest share of vegetable oil production, is still estimated at 79 million tons; consumption is expected to amount to 78 million tons. In Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for 85% of the global harvest, unfavorable weather conditions and increasing domestic consumption for the production of biofuels are resulting in a limited export supply. The relative scarcity in this sub-market has a significant price-supporting function in the entire oilseed business.
Sunflower seed is estimated to be 10% lower at 20.5 million tons. In Russia and especially in Ukraine - the two largest production areas in the world - the harvest was significantly poorer. The lack of exportable quantities particularly affects the EU as the world's largest importer with a trade share of more than 25%.
Similar to the grain market, the oilseed market is being massively influenced by the trade tariff restrictions imposed by the USA. Fundamental market influences are being pushed into the background as a result.
